In early October 2024, several key economic indicators showed that US growth remains robust, with potential signs of acceleration. In particular, September’s nonfarm payroll report revealed the addition of 254,000 jobs, an increase from August’s 159,000, and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. Additionally, the JOLTS report noted a rise in job openings, which increased from 7.7 million in July to 8 million in August. These figures suggest that the labor market continues to display strength.
The service sector, a leading indicator for the broader economy, also demonstrated resilience. The ISM service sector PMI rose to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August, signaling expansion. Conversely, the manufacturing sector remains weak, with the manufacturing PMI falling to 47.2, continuing its pattern of contraction. The manufacturing sector has been negatively affected by the strong US dollar, which has pressured export competitiveness. Despite this weakness, the service sector’s growth outweighs the ongoing struggles in manufacturing, contributing to overall economic strength.
The outlook for the US economy, based on these indicators, paints a picture of continued solid growth with two potential future scenarios: a disinflationary boom or an inflationary boom.
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