The U.S. economy is currently divided into two distinct paths, leading to considerable debate regarding the broader direction of growth. This week’s data points highlight the ongoing disparities in economic performance. The ISM manufacturing index continued to show weakness, while ISM services maintained strength, defying predictions of a downturn. The labor market data, including JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), unemployment claims, and payroll reports, further confirmed a slowing market, but one that has not yet seen an increase in layoffs.
At the same time, uncertainty lingers around the Federal Reserve’s actions, especially regarding the upcoming September decision. Debate persists about whether the Fed made an error with its July move. Fed commentary during the week was sparse and inconclusive, with key figures such as John Williams (New York Federal Reserve President) and Christopher Waller (Federal Reserve Governor) not offering clear guidance.
Subscribe!