Post-Economic

In an era of increasing global insecurity, the United States faces challenges in manufacturing sufficient weaponry for itself and its allies. To address this, the U.S. is increasingly looking to Japan, which is ramping up its defense spending and dismantling export controls that have historically constrained its arms industry. This presents significant opportunities for investors to consider Japan’s defense sector.

Let’s have a quick look at the semiconductor industry’s recent unprecedented growth and discuss the potential future scenarios for the semiconductor market amidst geopolitical rivalries and economic policies.

Norinchukin Bank, a cornerstone of Japan’s agricultural and fishing finance sectors, faces a financial maelstrom as it prepares to offload over $63 billion in foreign bonds. Driven by Japan’s negative interest rates, the bank’s aggressive foreign investment strategy has backfired, leading to substantial losses and raising concerns about broader implications for the global bond market and Japan’s banking system. Let’s have a brief assessment of the situation.

Let’s summarize financial market flows, investor sentiment, and strategic insights for various asset classes as of June 20th, 2024. I’ll take a look at significant trends in equity and bond markets, regional equity flows, fiscal policy perceptions, and the impact of the 2024 US election.

With the US grappling with inflation surprises and fiscal uncertainties, understanding how to safeguard investments is more important than ever. Let’s have a look at how commodities can hedge the financial risks associated with the incoming US presidential election.

The S&P 500 continues to break previous records, while the VIX steadily declines and credit spreads narrow, evoking a sense of calm before a potential storm. Concerns are growing among investors due to narrowing market leadership, high valuations, and restrictive monetary policies. So let’s try to assess where the market’s at by reviewing 10 indicators classified under 3 categories (Sentiment, Valuation and Macroeconomy) that typically precede a peak in the S&P 500.

In the context of the upcoming French legislative elections, everyone and their dog pretty much expects a French bonds crisis and an ensuing debt crisis. But is there a way to make it profitable for you?  

Thesis: French banks play a significant role in dollar funding markets, creating a channel through which political instability in France could potentially impact dollar-denominated assets. Let’s have a closer look at this idea.

There hasn’t been a normal recession in the US for 40 years. Why is that? Has the US become immune to economic downturns? Let’s look at what changed and how we should adapt our financial strategies to the specificities of the current era of the American economy.

The investment environment today is reminiscent of the 1970s, characterized by inflationary pressures, market volatility, and the need for strategic portfolio adjustments. Let’s try and see what the 1970s can teach us about investing in a structurally inflationary environment.

Let’s have a brief summary and analysis of the evolving dynamics among the US, UK, and France due to recent geopolitical developments, highlighting significant shifts in strategic alignments and cooperation.

The macroeconomic landscape has been highly volatile, defying easy categorization into typical scenarios like reflation, stagflation, divergence, or convergence. Despite this, the stock market continues its upward trajectory, buoyed by strong payroll figures, moderate core inflation, and robust performance from US mega-cap tech stocks.