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High Stakes in Semiconductors: What Comes Next?
Let’s have a quick look at the semiconductor industry’s recent unprecedented growth and discuss the potential future scenarios for the semiconductor market amidst geopolitical rivalries and economic policies.
Growing Old
China’s population is aging at an accelerated pace, with projections indicating that it will transition from an “aged society” to a “super-aged society” by 2032. This means that the proportion of individuals over the age of 65 will increase from 14% to more than 20% in just nine years.
Weekly Market Flows
Let’s summarize financial market flows, investor sentiment, and strategic insights for various asset classes as of June 20th, 2024. I’ll take a look at significant trends in equity and bond markets, regional equity flows, fiscal policy perceptions, and the impact of the 2024 US election.
Hedging the US Presidential Elections
With the US grappling with inflation surprises and fiscal uncertainties, understanding how to safeguard investments is more important than ever. Let’s have a look at how commodities can hedge the financial risks associated with the incoming US presidential election.
How to spot a Bear
The S&P 500 continues to break previous records, while the VIX steadily declines and credit spreads narrow, evoking a sense of calm before a potential storm. Concerns are growing among investors due to narrowing market leadership, high valuations, and restrictive monetary policies. So let’s try to assess where the market’s at by reviewing 10 indicators classified under 3 categories (Sentiment, Valuation and Macroeconomy) that typically precede a peak in the S&P 500.
Signals vs Noise
In today’s frantic environment, it’s easy to get caught up in the noise of market volatility, oil price swings, and alarming headlines. But what are the real indicators of risk? How do you distinguish parasitic noise from the signals that truly matter in the economy?
Let’s look at the three biggest concerns that could signal trouble ahead—construction job losses, unrealistic profit margin expectations, and France’s looming political crisis.
A French Debt Crisis : What risks for US markets?
Thesis: French banks play a significant role in dollar funding markets, creating a channel through which political instability in France could potentially impact dollar-denominated assets. Let’s have a closer look at this idea.
Is the US recession proof?
There hasn’t been a normal recession in the US for 40 years. Why is that? Has the US become immune to economic downturns? Let’s look at what changed and how we should adapt our financial strategies to the specificities of the current era of the American economy.
3 Little Bears
I’ve just read 3 different papers from 2 major banks and 1 leading investment research firm and they all converge on a bearish outlook for the coming months. I’ve compiled the differents arguments being made in the following (lengthy) note but the tl;dr is that the big boys are running to safety at least until the US Presidential Election results in November are known. Let’s look at why:
The Real Nature of Inflation (It's Political)
Inflation is a continuous process shaped by societal, fiscal, and institutional dynamics, not merely a one-time event triggered by specific economic shocks. Inflationary trends arise from deep-rooted fiscal mismanagement, institutional erosion, and social reactions to governmental policies rather than isolated incidents such as wars or pandemics. Recent events, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic, underscore how inflation is deeply intertwined with societal structures.